We are officially past the 2009 Season’s halfway point, and it’s about time for some Fantasy teams to hit the panic button.  If you are currently towards the bottom of your league, you need to make some major adjustments, and the sooner, the better.  A good strategy to pull off a dramatic comeback is to gamble on some players who have performed poorly in the first half in hopes of them turning things around.  Also, take note of players’ schedules in the upcoming weeks.  I typically do not consider a player’s schedule in the preseason, but if you are in a desperate situation, you need to explore every option available.

Here are your Week 9 Bulls and Bears:

WEEK 9 BULLS

Kurt Warner, QB Arizona Cardinals:

Line: 22/32 for 261 Yards, 5 TDs 0 INTS

Recommendation: SELL; Warner is likely coming off of his best game of the season.  If someone in your league is hurting for QB help, now would be an ideal target to sell Warner at a premium.

Jay Cutler, QB Chicago Bears:

Line: 29/47, 369 Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Recommendation: SELL; Depending on whether you have Cutler as your QB1 or QB2 dictates what you should do with him.  If he is in your backup role, you should definitely sell following this game (unless your QB1 is injury prone, like Matt Schaub).

Michael Turner, RB Atlanta Falcons:

Line: 18 Carries for 166 Yards and 2 TDs

Recommendation: HOLD; If Turner is on your team you either A.) drafted him in the top 3, or B.) gave up a whole lot in a trade.  When you acquired Turner, you expected this kind of output from him.  I expect him to keep this momentum through the rest of the season as he will justify his high draft pick.

Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans:

Line: 25 Carries for 135 Yards and 2 TDs

Recommendation: HOLD; Johnson has put up HUGE numbers during the Titans’ two game winning streak.  With VY under center, the team appears fully committed to establishing the run in order to open up things in the passing game.  We are getting to that point in the season where a player’s true value is revealed, and Johnson has established himself as an elite back.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals:

Line: 9 Recs for 123 Yards and 2 TDs, 14 Targets

Recommendation: No Recommendation; What you decide to do with Fitz is entirely circumstance based. If you have depth at receiver and are weak at another position, then trading Fitz might be the right choice because of the value you can get in return.  However, if you are strong at other positions, the Fitz can give you consistent production for the WR position, and you would be crazy to trade him.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR Jacksonville Jaguars:

Line: 6 Recs for 147 Yards and 1 TD, 8 Targets

Recommendation: BUY; Sims-Walker is clearly the number 1 WR in Jacksonville.  He has had some feast-or-famine type of games this season, but can be relied on as either a WR2/3.

Greg Olsen, TE Chicago Bears:

Line: 5 Recs for 71 Yards and 3 TDs, 7 Targets

Recommendation: BUY; Olsen finally broke out of a season long slump to score 3 TDs.  If you have had an injury to your starting TE (i.e. Daniels or Cooley), then Olsen may be an attractive alternative.  Hopefully this is a sign of Cutler and Olsen developing better chemistry.

WEEK 9 BEARS

Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia Eagles:

Line: 16/30 for 227 Yards, 1 TD 2 INTs

Recommendation: SELL; Hopefully McNabb is not your best QB option as I am not convinced of his consistency.  If I had depth at another position, I would consider creating a package to upgrade at your QB position.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens:

Line: 18/32 for 195 Yards, 0 TDs 2 INTs

Recommendation: BUY; Overall, Flacco has played better than his ADP this season.  The Bengals’ defense has played very strong this season, especially against the pass.  I consider performances like this to be an outlier for Flacco.  If you are struggling to find consistent QB play, Flacco could be an attractive option.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB San Diego Chargers:

Line: 12 Carries for 22 Yards, 0 TDs

Recommendation: SELL; Quote me on this: LaDainian Tomlinson will not be playing in the NFL in 3 seasons.  The sudden decline in performance reminds me of Shaun Alexander.  I would trade LT for just about anything of value,  and I would not start him in any 12 team league.

Ronnie Brown, RB Miami Dolphins:

Line: 15 Carries for 45 Yards, 1/2 Passing with 1 Passing TD

Recommendation: BUY; The Patriots appear to have the Dolphins’ number in regards to defending the Wildcat.  Brown was able to gain a TD, albeit via the pass, but he only averaged 3 Yards per Carry.  I would not worry about Brown’s, or the Dolphins’, ability to run the ball against any opponent.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detriot Lions:

Line: 2 Recs for 27 Yards, 9 Targets

Recommendation: BUY; Although he was able to play for the first time in several weeks, Johnson was not able to be very productive.  The good news is that his health will only continue to improve, and he did still receive 9 Targets.  Johnson has the ability to be a huge contributor to your Fantasy team, and this could be the time to get him on the cheap.

Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons:

Line: 3 Recs for 27 Yards, 5 Targets

Recommendation: BUY; The Redskins were able to shutdown the Falcons passing game.  Unfortunately (for Redskins fans) they could not stop the run game.  It was an all around bad game for White, but he should be more productive in the remainder of the season.

Todd Heap, TE Baltimore Ravens:

Line: 3 Recs for 28 Yards, 4 Targets

Recommendation: SELL; Already a borderline starter in most leagues, Heap should be outright dropped.  There are plenty of other options at TE this season, but Heap should not be one of them.

Thanks for checking out the Week 9 Recap! Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think! Who are your Week 9 Bulls and Bears? Please comment below.

Halloween Weekend was full of Tricks and Treats.  Brett Favre performed a trick on the Packers by beating them as a member of a division rival.  Favre led the Vikings by passing for 4 TDs, and sweeping the Packers during the 2009 season.  The Titans were given a treat as they earned their first victory of the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Although parity has been lacking this season, it has been abundant is some teams’ performance year after year.  The Titans are the best example of that: after going 13-3 last season, they finally earned their first victory in Week 8.

Let’s check out some of the best and worst performances from Week 8:

WEEK 8 BULLS

Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers:

The loser of the Brett Favre Bowl started off slowly against his former mentor’s team, as the Packers were held to 3 Points in the first half.  Rodgers Led the Packers to 23 second half points, while going 26/41 with 287 Yards and 3 TDs on the game.  Rodgers has been one of the best Fantasy QBs this season, but tends to hold onto the ball for too long.  The number of sacks Rodgers has taken could take its toll towards the end of the season.

Recommendation: HOLD/SELL; has been playing like a top-flight QB, but could breakdown towards the end of the season.

Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys:

Has posted 3 Consecutive game without an INT, and has looked quite impressive in those outings.  Romo has now made it into the BULLS column for two consecutive weeks as the Cowboys continue to roll.  Romo finished the game with 256 Yards and 3 TDs.

Recommendation: SELL; I have flashbacks to last season’s struggles during their playoff run.

Chris Johnson, RB Tennesee Titans:

The Titans looked like the team that won 13 games last season on Sunday.  The team emphasized the running game, which allowed them to make few, but more successful, pass attempts.  Chris Johnson enjoyed the renewed committment to the run by gaining 228 Yards on 24 Carries with 2 TDs.  Johnson’s explosiveness make him one of the most dangerous RBs in the NFL.

Recommendation: BUY; expect more big games, but high price tag.

Ryan Moats, RB Houston Texans:

Nobody saw Ryan Moats performance coming.  In relief of the fumbling Steve Slaton, Moats responded by gaining 126 Yards on 23 Carries and 3 TDs.  Gary Kubiak has gone on record to say that a time share is expected for the Texan’s RBs, good news for Moats, bad news for Slaton.

Recommendation: SELL; should not expect too many big games with a 3 way timeshare with Slaton and Brown.

Greg Jennings, WR Green Bay Packers:

You can officially take Greg Jennings off of the milk cartons in Green Bay.  Jennings finally decided to show up with 8 RECs for 88 Yards and a TD.  Jennings received 12 Targets, so he should be a factor in the offense moving forward.

Recommendation: BUY; Aaron Rodgers has put up big numbers all year, its about time Jennings gets involved.

Vincent Jackson, WR San Diego Chargers:

Jackson has really stepped up this year to become one of the best WRs in the NFL.  He currently ranks 2nd in ESPN Standard scoring leagues.  He added to his stellar season in Week 8 by catching 8 passes for 103 Yards and 1 TD.

Recommendation: BUY; has outscored Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss so far this season.

Dustin Keller, TE New York Jets:

This preseason sleeper favorite has gotten off to a slow start this season.  Keller turned things around against the Dolphins with 8 RECs for 76 Yards and 1 TD.

Recommendation: BUY; I would expect Keller to post big numbers whenever Sanchez has a good game.

WEEK 8 BEARS

Kurt Warner, QB Arizona Cardinals:

Five INTs.  It’s hard to ignore the 5 INTs thrown by Warner against the Cardinals, but his numbers were not terrible other than the INTs.  Warner completed 27/46 of his passes, good enough for a 58.7% Completion Percentage.  Warner appeared to be out of sync against the Panthers, which may have some Fantasy Owners panicking.

Recommendation: BUY; you cannot get much worse than 5 INTs, his value is very low.

David Garrard, QB Jacksonville Jaguars:

I had high expectations for Garrard going against the Titan’s weak passing defense.  Garrard only managed to gain 137 Yards on 14 completions with a 0/2 TD-INT Ratio.

Recommendation: SELL; following this poor performance, Garrard has seen his ownership rate drop considerably.

Ryan Grant, RB Green Bay Packers:

10 Carries for 30 Yards is not a strong stat line.  But considering it was against the Vikings strong run defense, it is not as bad as you might think.

Recommendation: BUY; he does not have to face the Viking’s run defense again this season.

Marshawn Lynch, RB Buffalo Bills:

Lynch only received 9 Carries against the Texans in a 31-10 loss.  The Bills were playing from behind for a majority of the games, and were forced to pass more than they would like.

Recommendation: BUY; his worst performance since returning to the team in Week 4.

Anquan Boldin, WR Arizona Cardinals:

The ankle injury really limited Boldin’s role in the Cardinals offense.  The WR only received 6 Targets and was used primarily as a decoy for majority of the game.  Word has it that he may miss their game in Week 9, but it should be close to a game time decision.

Recommendation: SELL; I have never been a huge fan of Boldin because of the injury risk.

Eddie Royal, WR Denver Broncos:

His breakout rookie season seems like a distant memory at this point.  Through 7 games Royal only has 20 RECs with 0 REC TDs.  His only real value is as a returner.

Recommendation: SELL; he has only scored 14 Fantasy points as a WR in ESPN Standard Leagues.

Owen Daniels, TE Houston Texans:

Going into Week 8, Owen Daniels was one of the top Fantasy TEs in the NFL.  Unfortunately, he will likely be lost for the season with a torn ACL.  Thankfully, there are plently of TEs available in most leagues.  I have lost Daniels in one of my leagues, and I am taking a chance on Redskin’s TE Fred Davis who is a terrific pass-catching TE.

Recommendation: SELL; no point in wasting a roster spot on a player who is likely out for the season.

Domination: The Unofficial Theme for Week 7.

If you are a fan of one-sided offensive blowouts, you must have loved Week 7.  Of Week 7′s 13 games, 6 were decided by 28 points or more.  Though there were a few compelling games (Saints-Dolphins, 49ers-Texans), many of the games were decided close to halftime.

So what does this mean from a Fantasy perspective?  A lot of players greatly improved their Fantasy stock, while others greatly depreciated in value, and some players who lost their starting job.

WEEK 7 BULLS

Carson Palmer, QB Cincinnati Bengals:

The Bengals ran the ball down the Bears throats on Sunday, which set up Carson Palmer for a huge day.  Palmer only needed to pass 24 times to compile 5 TDs because Cedric Benson was running wild.  The former Heisman Trophy winner is capable of putting up huge numbers any game.  Coming off of a knee injury, Palmer was drafted late in most drafts, but is able to fill the QB1 position.  Palmer is should be targeted if you are having difficulties with you current QB situation.

Recommendation: BUY; widely drafted as a QB2, but capable of filling QB1 role.

Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys:

Romo must have missed the NFC East QB Plague in Week 6 that I discussed in last week’s article.  After a slow start, Romo finished 21/29 Passing for 311 YARDs, 3 TDs and 0 INTs.  Romo seems to thrive in non-pressure situations for the Cowboys, and should continue to do so until the pressure increases.

Recommendation: SELL; expect a drop in performance against the NFC East, especially if a playoff birth is on the horizon.

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals:

Motivated by revenge, Cedric Benson torched his former team for 189 YARDS on 37 CARRIES with 1 TD.  Benson has been a frequent visitor of the BULLS column this season as he remains one of the league’s biggest surprises.  On Sunday Benson was running like a man with something to prove.  He looked legitimately pissed off at the Bears as he led the NFL in rushing in Week 7.

Recommendation: BUY; Benson is legit, but poor reputation may cause some owners to devalue him.

Shonn Greene, RB New York Jets:

The loss of Leon Washington for the season really opened up an opportunity for the rookie out of Iowa.  The run heavy Jets should continue to pound the football, with Greene seeing an increase in his role.  Greene was able to gain 144 YARDs and 2 TDs on 19 carries in a route of the Oakland Raiders.

Recommendation: BUY; his increased work-load creates huge opportunity for Fantasy owners.

Chad Ochocinco, WR Cincinnati Bengals:

Rounding out a trio of Bengals, the receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson led the Bengals in receiving against the Bears.  Number 85 finished the game with 10 RECs for 118YARDs and 2 TDs.  Following a disappointing campaign in 2008, Ochocinco has played very well for the Bengals this season.  Chad only needs 14 more reception to surpass his 2008 total.

Recommendation: HOLD; market value is finally corrected after last season’s flop.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys:

Looks like Tony Romo has found his new favorite target!  Austin made the most of his first official “start” of the season, catching 6 passes for 171 YARDs and 2 TDs.  After two consecutive strong performances, I believe that Austin is a must start in 3-WR formats and is a match-up play in every league.

Recommendation: BUY/SELL; if he is available you MUST pick him up, but he might be over valued by some owners in your league.

Vernon Davis, TE San Fransisco 49ers:

As former Number 1 Pick Alex Smith relieved Shaun Hill against the Texans, Smith targeted Davis for 3 TDs in the second half.  If Alex Smith continues to start for the 49ers, you can expect Davis to benefit.

Recommendation: BUY; this is Vernon Davis’ break-out season.

WEEK 7 BEARS

Matt Cassel, QB Kansas City Chiefs:

Cassel threw INTs on two consecutive pass attempts Sunday against the Chargers.  Cassel finished the day 10/25 for 97 YARDs with 1 TDs and 3 INTs, and the Chargers HAD been struggling on defense.  The offense is struggling and, unfortunately, their QB is not their biggest problem.

Recommendation: SELL; you cannot feel confident starting Cassel any week.

Jamarcus Russell, QB Oakland Raiders:

After Sunday’s disastrous performance, Russell went from barely ownable in 12-Team leagues, to drop-worthy in just about every format.  Russell went 6/11 with 3 Turnovers against the Jets.  ESPN.com wrote a great article this past week criticizing Russell’s work ethic and commitment to success.  I doubt Russell will ever become a productive QB in the NFL.

Recommendation: SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, HE SHOULD NOT BE ON ANYONE’S ROSTER!

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints:

Appears that the Saints are going to be doing more of a straight time-share between Thomas and Mike Bell.  The Saints offense is so high-powered that it may mean bad things for fantasy owners as there is only so much ball to go around.  Thomas is very talented but it will be difficult to expect him to put up huge points on a consistent basis.

Recommendation: SELL; his perception may be skewed by some owners who expect him to be a featured RB.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB New York Giants:

Received only 12 carries against the Cardinals compared to Brandon Jacobs’ 13.  Going forward I anticipate the the Giants will start giving the carries to Jacobs more often.  Jacobs is more of a bruiser, and as the weather changes Jacobs can really wear down a defense.

Recommendation: SELL; expect a diminishing role moving forward.

Steve Smith, WR New York Giants:

Only 4 RECs for 69 YARDs on Sunday, Eli has too many weapons to target on just one receiver.  The opportunity to sell high on Smith has officially elapsed, but trade value is still there.  I would try to trade him ASAP before more performances like this bring down his value even further.

Recommendation: SELL; early season break out unsustainable going forward the rest of the season.

Roy Williams, WR Dallas Cowboys:

Roy Williams had 1 REC for 19 YARDs against the Falcons.  Half of Tony Romo’s incompletions on Sunday were caused by Roy Williams drops.  Williams has been a huge disappointment during his tenure with the Cowboys.  Consider the fact that the Cowboys owe Williams $9M this season, and are only paying Miles Austin $1.5M.  Who would you rather have on your franchise?

Recommendation: SELL; his performance has been disappointing, no signs of change to come.

Tony Gonzalez, TE Atlanta Falcons:

The Cowboy’s Defense appeared to have game planned to shutdown Gonzalez this week, and it was effective.  Gonzalez caught only 4 passes for 37 YARDs in the loss to the Cowboys.  Gonzalez has played well this season, but has not exploded the way may owners expected him to in the Falcons Offense.

Recommendation: BUY; only BEAR worth buying this week, still one of the league’s elite TEs.

Thanks for checking out the Week 7 Recap! Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think! Who are your Week 7 Bulls and Bears? Please comment below.

Week 6 was a wild one in the NFL.  Filled with blowouts, bad weather, disappointing performances and hot seats getting hotter (especially at FedEx Field), Week 6 did not disappoint.

The weather in the northeast was horrible and had significant impact on several games, and some players fantasy value.  The Titans decided not to show up against the Patriots, making the Pats look like their 2007 version, as they pitched 59 points in a shutout.  Mark Sanchez showed that he performs much better in perfect conditions, throwing 5 INTs during the Bills overtime upset of the Jets.

All three active teams in the NFC East lost on Sunday, going a combined 0-3.  In Washington, the Redskins proved that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  The Giants were absolutely dominated in what was suppossed to be the game of the week.  And the Eagles were embarrassed by the Oakland Raiders.

With all of this madness going on, there were dramatic implications on the stock market that is Fantasy Football.  Here are your WEEK 6 BULLS AND BEARS:

WEEK 6 BULLS

Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots:

Tom Brady is a pretty good quarterback.  In other obvious news, Usain Bolt could beat me in a foot race.  The Patriots’ performance against the Titans was nothing short of impressive.  Scoring 59 points is impressive in the NFL, but scoring 59 points in wet conditions is down-right absurd.  Brady busted out of mediocrity (by his standards) to the tune of 380 YARDS and 6 TDs.  Remember last year when Peyton started the season slow following knee surgery, and eventually won the MVP?  Expect Brady to finish strong this season and compete with Peyton, Brees, and AP for the MVP this season.

Recommendation: HOLD; the window of opportunity to buy-low on Brady is officially over.

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans:

I have been very high on the Bengals’ Defense so far this season.  Well, until Schaub tore them apart in Week 6, going 28/40 for 392 YARDS, 4 TDs and only 1 INT.  Schaub has the ability to carry a fantasy team on any given week.  What I love the most about Schaub is his favorable schedule going forward.  He does not play a single shut-down pass defense for the rest of the season.  Seriously, look up the Texans schedule, it’s a joke.

Recommendation: BUY; you have to love his schedule going forward, only thing that could derail him is injury.

DeAngelo Williams, RB Carolina Panthers:

We have been waiting for last year’s fantasy MVP to breakout all year long.  Granted his success came against a sub-par Tampa Bay defense, you cannot argue with 152 rushing yards and 2 TDs.  What I enjoyed seeing the most was the large split of the carries that he received.  Williams carried the ball 30 times, compared to Stewart’s 17 rushes.  He has clearly made himself the featured back in that offense.

Recommendation: BUY; appears to be taking a larger role in the run game, and Delhomme has not been effective passing the ball.

Thomas Jones, RB New York Jets:

As bad as Mark Sanchez looked in Week 6, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington looked really strong.  It appears that Sanchez is missing the beautiful weather in Southern California.  If Sanchez cannot adjust to the windy conditions of Giant’s Stadium, then the running game should continue to be emphasized.  Jones was featured against the Bills, but Leon Washington’s talent casts a shadow of doubt over Jones’ outlook.

Recommendation: SELL; we just witnessed Thomas Jones’ best game of the season, sell-high.

Randy Moss/Wes Welker, WRs New England Patriots:

Neither receivers’ season has been too remarkable up to this point.  I could not tell if the Pats were in-sync on Sunday, but the Titans were badly out-of-sync.  Either way, the Patriots receivers combined for 18 receptions for 279 yds and 5 TDs.  Welker especially was impressive considering he has been in-and-out of the lineup most of the season.

Recommendation: HOLD; expect more big things to come.

Steve Breaston, WR Arizona Cardnials:

Steve Breaston has to be the best number 3 receiver on any team in the league.   Boldin claims he will play in Week 7 despite getting banged up against the Seahawks; he remains an injury risk.  Breaston should get plenty of targets if Boldin is out of the lineup, because of the attention that Fitzgerald draws.  Breaston finished Week 6 with 7 receptions for 77 yds and 1 TD.

Recommendation: BUY; should see productivity increase if the oft-injured Boldin misses time.

Owen Daniels, TE Houston Texans:

Daniels had 2 TDs against the Bengals on Sunday, both of which were within the redzone.  I love the passing attack in Houston, not so much the Texans’ Running Game.  If the Texans continue to struggle to run the ball inside the redzone, expect Schaub to target Daniels in those critical situations.

Recommendation: BUY;  was considered a non-elite TE in the preseason, but he is making you reconsider.

WEEK 5 BEARS

NFC East Quarterbacks:

Eli Manning, QB New York Giants:

New Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams has the Saints’ defense playing at a very high level. The entire Giants offense was struggling, as they had to play from behind the entire game.  The Giants’ offense is based on ball control and thrives when their defense is playing at its best.  I do not think that the Giants, and/or Eli, will play this poorly against most teams.

Recommendation: BUY; Eli and the Giants should be back to their old selves against the Cardinals next week.

Donovan McNabb, QB Philadelphia Eagles:

As impressive as the Patriots looked on Sunday, the Eagles looked equally as disappointing.  The Eagles’ offense was out of sync all day.  The Eagles never established their run game, and McNabb was not able to get the ball to his receivers effectively.  McNabb was unable to led the Eagles to any TDs against the lowly Raiders.

Recommendation: BUY; McNabb has too many weapons on offense to be this ineffective.

Jason Campbell, QB Washington Redskins:

I was at FedEx Field when cheers erupted as Todd Collins took over for Jason Campbell in the second half.  Bad news for ‘Skins fans, Collins did not perform much better.  Campbell lost QB duties after going 9/16 with an INT in the first half.  The good news for Campbell owners is that Coach Zorn has identified Campbell as his Week 7 starter against the Eagles.  The bad news is that the offense is so dysfunctional that you cannot expect Campbell to be a productive fantasy football player.

Recommendation: SELL; too much inconsistency on offense (and in the owner’s box) for either ‘Skin’s QB to have success.

Matt Forte, RB Chicago Bears:

Forte averaged around 1.5 yards per carry against the Falcons.  This is not what you were expecting when you drafted him in the first round this year.  If there is a silver-lining to his performance this season it is this: he is still the featured back, who is still getting the ball in the redzone, and he still catching passes.  He has had only one big game so far (Week 4), and is still capable of big things.

Recommendation: BUY; value has dropped due to a slow start, but he has no competition for touches out of the backfield.

Brandon Jacobs, RB New York Giants:

Has not nearly been the bruiser that he was last year, having struggled to find the endzone on a consistent basis.  The Giants played from behind for almost the entire game, but Jacobs received less than half of the carries.  Bradshaw is more of a home run threat, that must be the logic for avoiding Jacobs.  I would expect the Giants to be in closer games against the NFC East, causing them to rely on Jacobs more heavily.

Recommendation: BUY; he will get his touches (and touchdowns) against closer competition, he is too large to not find the endzone.

Steve Smith, WR Carolina Panthers:

Quote of the week: “I’m no longer an asset to this team.”  Big thanks to Steve Smith for the great quote.  If the man can no longer endorse himself, how could I possibly back him up?  Smith had a terrible game with only 1 REC for 4 Yards.

Recommendation: SELL; I would probably trade Smith for any receiver not named T.O.

Santanna Moss, WR Washington Redskins:

How bad does the Redskin’s offense look right now?  Going into Week 6, the Chiefs were the worst ranked defense in the NFL, and the team only scored 6 Points. 6 Points!  It’s difficult to endorse any receiver on a team that had so many question marks surrounding the offense, especially with this QB situation.  Only 1 REC for 42 Yards on Todd Collins’ first pass of the day.

Recommendation: SELL; cannot expect consistency with Moss until there is consistency with the coaching staff.

Thanks for checking out the Week 6 Recap! Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think! Who are your Week 6 Bulls and Bears? Please comment below.

The early portion of the NFL season is always very interesting.  Teams and players begin to reveal their real identity as story lines begin to emerge.  No one would have predicted that Cedric Benson would be the NFL’s leading rusher in Week 5 or that the McDaniels-led Broncos would defeat the Patriots to move to 5-0 on the season.  The non-fantasy season has been thrilling up to this point.

This fantasy season has been no different.  By Week 5 in Fantasy, the preseason hype starts to wear off some players, and players true colors begin to shine through (how’s Buffalo treating you, T.O.?).  Some owners may start to panic about their players’ lack of production, and may be willing to trade that player for cents on the dollar.  Be sure to look for these undervalued gems, and try to uncover a diamond in the rough.

WEEK 5 BULLS

Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons:

So much for the 49ers’ defense being considered one of the best in the league! Matt Ryan led the Falcons to scoring 45 points against San Fran in his biggest game of 2009. Ryan went 22/32 for 329 Yards, 2 TDs passing and 1 TD rushing.

Recommendation: HOLD; this is the type of performance that was expected from Ryan following a terrific rookie campaign.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB Seattle Seahawks:

When healthy, there are only a handful of QBs better than Hasselbeck. After missing the previous two games with a back injury, Hasselbeck went 18/30 with 241 Yards and 4 TDs. He has been impressive with 7 TDs in only 3 games.

Recommendation: SELL/HOLD; injury risk makes it hard to have him as QB1, but a very legit QB2.

Cedric Benson, RB Cincinnati Bengals:

Led all Week 5 RBs with 120 rushing yards on 27 carries. Benson has been a great sleeper so far this season, and will continue to get the carries in Cincinnati. You have to feel dirty about putting him in your starting lineup, but you cannot argue with the production.

Recommendation: BUY; his value is discredited because he is Cedric Benson, but is playing beyond his reputation.

Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens:

Did not put up huge numbers in Week 5, but he was consistently fed the ball. It appears that the coaches in Baltimore are favoring him (he received 14 of Baltimore’s 17 hand-offs). He is starting to get more comfortable as a starting RB in the NFL.

Recommendation: BUY; expect consistent numbers from Rice, looks like a light version of MJD.

Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys:

Probably the most obvious choice on this list. Career day for Austin: 10 Rec for 250 Yards and 2 TDs. With Roy Williams returning after the BYE Week, expect Austin to push Crayton back to the slot in Week 7.

Recommendation: BUY; only owned in 2% of ESPN Leagues, number will certainly increase ASAP.

Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons:

The BYE Week did wonders for the Atlanta offense. After a slow start to the season, Roddy White stepped up to the tune of 8 Rec for 210 Yards and 2 TDs. This is the breakout performance that we all expected from White, hopefully a sign of things to come.

Recommendation: HOLD; this big game corrected his value, which had previously been too low.

Kellen Winslow, TE Tampa Bay Buccanneers:

Boy, I was sure wrong about Winslow last week. The numbers do not indicate how well QB Josh Johnson played on Sunday. The young QB’s confidence is growing, and young QB’s tend to look for the TEs. Winslow tied for the lead with 12 targets in Week 5, bringing in 9 Rec for 102 Yards and 2 TDs.

Recommendation: HOLD; his performance either moved him to the bottom of the upper tier, or the top of the second tier of TEs.

WEEK 5 BEARS

Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots:

I know, I know, I know… his numbers were not that bad this week (19/33 for 215 Yards and 2 TDs). The point is, Brady typically went in the second round in most drafts because people expected him to return to his 2007 form; so far he is only playing like a top 10 QB. It appears that he is still out of sync with some of his receivers, and this will likely improve as the season progresses.

Recommendation: BUY; I am still a believer in Brady, but his performance has not been Brady-esque so far this season.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens:

When I watch the Ravens play, I sometimes forget that Flacco is only in his second season. I think his struggles in Week 5 were due to the underrated Bengals Defense. He should continue to play close to a top ten QB going forward, but a minor setback in Week 5.

Recommendation: BUY; poor performance in Week 5 should not impact his performance on the balance of the season.

Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans:

The Titans have been from behind a lot this year because of shoddy passing defense. The Colts forced the Titans to be pass happy again in Week 5. Johnson only had 9 carries but managed 34 Yards (3.8 YPC). His stock dropped a little in Week 5, but he still is averaging 6 YPC.

Recommendation: BUY; good opportunity to pick up a top 5 RB.

Kevin Smith, RB Detroit Lions:

His weak yards per carry has been over shadowed by his performance near the goal line. Smith is barely averaging 3.1 yards per carry on 94 attempts. His 3 TDs have made owners happy, but he needs to improve his rushing average.

Recommendation: BUY; never underestimate the power of a featured RB, you cannot score points if you do not get the touches.

Randy Moss, WR New England Patriots:

My Favorite Stat of Week 5: Randy Moss caught as many passes from Tom Brady as he did from Kyle Orton. Only 1 Rec for 36 Yards, it looks like Brady and Moss have lost their chemistry from the 2007 season. I think he can improve, but his success is tied to that of Brady.

Recommendation: BUY; good buy-low opportunity to pick up a top tier WR, hopefully Welker can open up more big plays in their offense.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions:

Banged up his knee in the game against the Steelers. Has had a brief history of knee injury, a cause for concern for owners. He still possesses the freak ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Recommendation: SELL; valued very highly by some owners, but injury concerns are worrisome going forward.

Chris Cooley, TE Washington Redskins:

HUGE Surprise in Week 5: Chris Cooley had 0 REC AND 0 Targets. Chris Samuels had to leave the game against the Panthers, and the ‘Skins used Cooley in protection for much of the game.

Recommendation: BUY; literally could not play any worse in Fantasy.

Thanks for checking out the Week 5 Recap! Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think! Who are your Week 5 Bulls and Bears? Please comment below.

The best way to predict future success is to look back at past performance.  When drafting a Fantasy Football team, previous season performance is the best indicator of future success.

Making difficult roster decisions in the middle of the season requires a more narrow focus.  Players and teams get on hot or cold streaks that can carry from week-to-week.  Paying attention to these streaks can help you lead your team to fantasy victory.

WEEK 3 BULLS

David Garrard, QB Jacksonville Jaguars:

Though Garrard is not the sexist player to have as your starting QB, he has the production.  Garrard torched the Titans for 323 Yards and 3 Touchdowns.  If you are starting a QB like Tony Romo, playing Garrard is starting to sound a lot more sexy.

Recommendation: BUY; few fantasy teams are using him as a starter, but a lot more should.

Phillip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers:

The Chargers running game has been a big disappointment this season.  Rivers kept the ball moving for the Chargers against the Steelers, while Tomlinson had little to offer.  Rivers went 21/36 with 254 Yards and 3 Touchdowns in the loss.

Recommendation: BUY; he has played very consistently week-to-week, even against tough Defenses.

Ronnie Brown, RB Miami Dolphins:

The Dolphins’ running game is very dangerous, with 45 rushing attempts against the Bills in Week 4.  Ronnie Brown led the way with 20 Carries for 115 Yards and 2 Touchdowns.  Brown and the Dolphins continue to run the Wildcat effectively, and should be able to move the ball on the ground.

Recommendation: BUY; Brown is the type of player who can carry a fantasy team when he has a good week.

Jerome Harrison, RB Cleveland Browns:

One of the most important statistics for a running back is number of carries.  With Jamal Lewis and James Davis injured, Harrison was responsible for 29 out of the Browns’ 30 carries on Sunday.  Harrison appears to have won the starting job by picking up 121 yards.

Recommendation: BUY; As long as he is getting the touches, he will be undervalued by most fantasy owners.

Steve Smith, WR New York Giants:

The preseason questions surrounding the Giants receiving corps feels like a distant memory.  Steve Smith has emerged as the leader of the young Giant receivers.  Smith has become one of Eli’s favorite targets, leading the NFL in targets for Week 4 with 16.  Week 4 Totals: 11 Receptions, 134 Yards with 2 Touchdowns made Smith the top fantasy receiver in Week 4.

Recommendation: HOLD; Smith is one of the top WRs in the NFL.  He should keep up his production, but has nowhere to go but down.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Seattle Seahawks:

When backup QBs get playing time, they tend to favor their big name receivers.  Houshmandzadeh was targeted by Seneca Wallace by 11 times.  His production had been questioned in recent weeks, but he had 8 Receptions for 103 Yards in Week 4.

Recommendation: BUY; Seneca Wallace should continue to target Houshmandzadeh while the oft-injured Hasselbeck is out.

Antonio Gates, TE San Diego Chargers:

You have to love a TE that leads his team in targets.  Gates is Phillip Rivers favorite target this season, and put up big numbers against the Steelers.  Gates finished the game with 13 Targets, 9 Receptions for 124 Yards and 2 Touchdowns.

Recommendation: SELL; his strong performance greatly improves his value, but TEs are widely available this season.

WEEK 3 Bears

Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys:

Everything is bigger in Texas, especially the microscope over Tony Romo’s performance.  After starting the season strong against the lackluster Bucs, Romo has struggled in 3 consecutive games.  The Dallas offense looked completely out of sync against the Broncos.  I do not understand why 19 of Romo’s 42 pass attempts were thrown to All-Pro CB Champ Bailey.  Bad strategy, but even worse execution by Romo.

Recommendation: SELL; there must be a Cowboys fan in your league willing to trade for Romo.

Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets:

Sanchez has played so well in the first 3 weeks that people have started to forget that he is a rookie.  After 4 Turnovers against the Saints, owners were quickly reminded that rookie QBs have their ups-and-downs.  I love Sanchez long term, but you should not rely on a rookie QB.

Recommendation: SELL; the hype exceeds realistic production.

Darren McFadden, RB Oakland Raiders:

Recommendation: SELL; try to get whatever value you can, otherwise cut him from your roster after the injury.

Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans Saints:

Remember when people laughed at the Texans for drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush?  Who’s laughing now?  Bush is not quite a running back, not quite a receiver, and not quite a productive fantasy player. As the Saints back-up RB this week, Bush has only been given 6 carries and has 3 Receptions for 44 Total Yards.

Recommendation: SELL; sad that his big play ability is not utilized by the Saints high-powered offense.

Braylon Edwards, WR Cleveland Browns:

Had a great season in 2007, but has been a huge disappointment since.  Edwards pulled a TO in Week 4 by not catching a single pass.  After a late night altercation Monday morning, I’m not sure what is more embarrassing: his performance on the field or off?

Recommendation: SELL; 7 different Browns’ receivers caught a pass against the Bengals, none of whom were Braylon Edwards.

Eddie Royal, WR Denver Broncos:

Sophomore Slump.  After a terrific rookie season, Royal has been a non-factor in 2009, averaging 2 Receptions per game.  QB Kyle Orton is not known for his ability to throw the deep ball, this could be the cause for their lack of chemistry.

Recommendation: BUY; he has been horrendous this season, could be a great buy low candidate.

Kellen Winslow, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The inexperience of QB Josh Johnson devalues all Tampa Bay receivers.  Winslow has been dreadful while Johnson has been under center.

Recommendation: SELL; cannot expect consistent production with Johnson at QB.

Thanks for checking out the Week 4 Recap!  Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think!  Who are your Week 4 Bulls and Bears?  Please comment below.

Fantasy Sports and the stock market have many, many similarities.  In order to be successful in either you must be aware of trends BEFORE they take place.  In fantasy, much like the stock market, it is all about value.  Successful managers pick-up (or buy) players when their value is relatively low, and wait for that investment to mature.  If an undervalued player reaches his maturity you can either hold him if you think his performance is sustainable, or deal him to capitalize on his performance because an expected cold streak.

A player’s fantasy value is very dynamic; changing constantly.  An injury report, a coaches decision, or a gun-shot wound to the thigh could affect a player’s value at any time.  In Fantasy Football a player’s value can change considerably after every game.  For savvy fantasy investors, opportunities to buy low on a player present themselves every week.

WEEK 3 BULLS

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans

Every week Matt Schaub is capable of putting up huge fantasy numbers.  The Hosuton QB possesses a great arm, great decision making skills, and a great corp of receivers.  Schaub started slow against the Jets strong pass D in week one, but has improved since.  In weeks two and three he has combined to go 51/74 with 657 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception; including a 26/35 for 300 yards 3TDs and 1 pick in week three against the Jags.  Schaub’s talent has never been a concern, but his durability has always been a big question mark.  Schaub has not played in more than 11 games since joining the Texans in 2007.  After being banged up in the preseason, it is no guarantee that Schaub will finish the year health, so now may be a good time to deal the QB if you can find a suitable offer.

Recommendation: SELL or HOLD; Schaub is a classic high risk/reward fantasy player.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens:

The Raven’s new found passing attack may be one of the biggest surprises of the young season.  Previously known for a strong running game a defense, Flacco has Baltimore looking like a complete playoff team.  Flacco led the Ravens to victory by passing for 342 yards with a TD against the Browns in week three.  The only bad news for Flacco owners is that Joe has picked on two weaker defenses so far this season against the Browns and Chiefs.  As the weather starts changing and the Ravens face tougher D’s, Flacco’s numbers may suffer.

Recommendation: SELL; target an owner who is panicking about his current QB situation.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints:

Pierre Thomas was on many “experts’” sleeper lists going into the preseason (NOTE: Nobody is a fantasy “expert,” certain people are just better at guessing).  Thomas’ stock fell following a late preseason knee injury.  In his first game back since aggravating his knee, Thomas was impressive in the second half against the Bills.  Thomas’s 2TDs late in the game helped the Saints to pull away, and seal the victory.  The Saints backfield is filled with injures and question marks, so as long as Pierre can stay healthy, he will be the go-to guy in the Saints backfield.  The Saint’s high-powered offense could produce many blow-outs, so New Orleans will frequently run the ball to grind out the clock.

Recommendation: BUY; a featured-back that has flown under the radar.

Knowshon Moreno, RB Denver Broncos:

The highly touted rookie has seen his carries increase every week of the season.  The running game has always been a strength for the Broncos, and Knowshon led the team in carries in week three (21 carries for 90 yards, 1 TD).  Denver thinks very highly of Moreno, drafting him higher in the draft than many expected him to go.  Expect him to continue to get the ball and produce in that system.

Recommendation: HOLD; if you own him you are ahead of the curve, but you will have to spend a lot to acquire him.

Santana Moss, WR Washington Redskins:

The only bright spot in the Redskin’s 19-14 loss to the Detroit Lions.  Moss has always been able to put up big numbers, but consistency has always been an issue with the Redskin’s offense.  Santana doubled his season total for receptions in week three (10 Rec 178, 1 TD).  Inconsistency can drive fantasy owners crazy.

Recommendation: SELL; may put up good numbers against TB next week, but don’t except number like this every week.

Kevin Walker, WR Houston Texans:

Walter sat out the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.  Walter played very well in his 2009 debut with 7 Rec for 96 yards and 1 TD.  I love the fact that he plays opposite of Andre Johnson.  Johnson will receive plenty of attention, leaving Walter open on the other side of the field.  As long as Schaub and Johnson can stay healthy, Walter should be able to put up big numbers.

Recommendation: BUY; Walter will continue to get overlooked in Andre Johnson’s shadow. 

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers:

 Up to this point in his career, many people view Vernon Davis as a bust for not living up to his enormous potential.  So far coach Singletary’s rant may be the most memorable moment of Davis’ young career.  Against the Vikings in week three Davis had arguably the best game of his career (7 Rec for 96 yards, and 2 TDs).  Davis showed the promise that 9er fans have been anticipating since he was selected 6th overall in 2006.

Recommendation: SELL; one great game does not negate previous disappointment, but hopefully a sign of things to come.

Brent Celek, TE Philadelphia Eagles:

Celek is the starting TE for an Eagle’s offense that utilizes the TE position heavily.  Players like Celek prove that you do not need to draft a TE early to be successful.  In week three against the Chiefs, Celek had 8 Recs for 104 yards and 1 TD.  Even without Donovan McNabb, Celek has a better QB situation than Oakland’s Zach Miller.  Expect more big numbers from Celek, especially after McNabb returns.

Recommendation: BUY; I dropped Zach Miller in a deep league to start Celek.

WEEK 3 BEARS

Matt Cassel, QB Kansas City Chiefs:

I do not understand why the Chiefs would put so much faith in such an unknown player.  Cassel put up respectable numbers in an extraordinary system last year in New England.  It was foolish for fantasy owners to draft Cassel with high expectations.  Although Cassel did pass for 2TDs, he only gained 90 yards and threw only 18 passes.  One of the touchdowns came against the Eagle’s prevent defense late in the game.  The Chiefs defense cannot seem to get off of the field, which limited their offensive attempts.  Even in a blowout loss to the Eagles, the Chiefs still ran the ball 29 times vs 19 pass attempts.

Recommendation: SORRY; I am sorry that you have Matt Cassel on your team, you cannot trade him, and there are likely better options available.

Clinton Portis, RB Washington Redskins:

As a Redskins fan I am sickened by the team’s offensive performance so far.  The team looks like lost on offense, completely lacking direction.  Portis seemed upset in the first quarter when they went for it on fourth and goal, and called for the same stretch play that they always run to the left side.  Until the ‘Skins can prove they can run the ball, I would avoid starting Portis at all costs.  The good news is that things cannot get much worse for Portis, right?

Recommendation: BUY; target a Portis owner who has grown frustrated, hopefully Portis (and the ‘Skins) can turn things around.

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans:

As surprising as Slaton was in his rookie season, he has been equally disappointing in his second season.  The season is still very young, but Slaton only has 127 yards through three games.  The good news about this season is that the Texans has faced three difficult run defenses in the Jets, Titans, and Jags.  Going forward you can expect Slaton to improve as teams try to defend the Texans dynamic passing offense.

Recommendation: BUY, BUY, BUY; seriously, you should buy Steve Slaton.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detriot Lions:

I do not think there is any other WR in the league that has the same big-play ability as Megatron (LOVE the nickname).  I don’t think he is capable of a 100 Rec season, but he can score a touchdown on any play.  So far I think he has been receiving a lot of double teams.  The running game looked strong against the Redskins, so if other players can step-up on the lions offense, it could open things up for the big play.  Look for Johnson to get involved.

Recommendation: BUY; off to a slow start, but can break off a big game any week.

Terrel Owens, WR Buffalo Bills:

Surprise, Surprise; T.O. lacks any form of chemistry in Buffalo (I think I’ve heard this story before).  The 5 targets he received against the Saints only proves that QB Trent Edwards will not buy into Owens’ “Me First” attitude.  He appears to have hit a wall in his physical ability, but people may still buy him because of the big name.

Recommendation: SELL; sell him ASAP while people still believe that he has skills.

Zach Miller, TE Oakland Raiders:

Jamarcus Russell looks like one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL.  The Raiderslook like one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  Miller is a talented player that is surrounded by a poor situation.  With plenty of TEs playing well in the NFL, guys like Miller are easily replaceable.

Recommendation: SELL; you cannot expect a lot of trade value, scout FA to find a suitable replacement.

Thanks for checking out the Week 3 Recap!  Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think!  Who are your week 3 Bulls and Bears?  Please comment below.

Can you wake me up in October?!

There are few compelling reasons for a casual fan to attend an MLB game until the post-season. The lack of a pennant race will make it difficult for teams to generate ticket and game-day revenue. Hell, the NFL is struggling to sell tickets, what chance do the Marlins have to draw a crowd?

This past off-season was a changing of the guard in the way that owners approach free agents. The baseball’s years of annual revenue growth are over for the near future. However, there is some good, and some bad, news about the current state of Major League Baseball.

The Good News:

MLB ticket sales have only decreased 6% over last year; this is much lower than was expected. In the off-season where economic concerns forced established players to swallow their pride, and accept (seemingly) below market value contracts.  Owners were preparing for a much more significant drop-off in attendance.  The 6% decrease should be viewed as a mild victory because it proves that fans will continue to support their teams, in good times or bad.

The Bad News:

Operating margins will decrease as teams adjust ticket price, and promotion, to keep fans in the stands.  Teams have developed creative ways to extend value to their fans at the expense of their profits.  Lowering ticket prices, offering All-You-Can-Eat tickets, and introducing new attractions are all ways teams have kept ticket volume up.

The 2008-2009 off-season officially ushered in a new era of the game that emphasizes the value of defense and younger players.  As we move towards the 2009-2010 off-season, you can expect more frugality as teams prepare for economic uncertainty.  The conclusion of the regular season may be anti-climatic, but get ready to an exciting off-season.