Truth Serum

Who’s for real and who’s fakin’? Sometimes in fantasy it can be hard to tell the difference between guys who are finally breaking out and becoming stat sheet studs and those who are overly inflated and are about ready to burst.  Generally speaking, when it comes to the first few weeks of the league, the rule of thumb is expect the unexpected but keep your head on straight and think long term.

The Ball Don’t Lie:

Aaron Brooks: On a Rockets team that desperately needed young guys to step up and take control in the absence of superstars Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, Brooks is proving that he can do just that.  After 5 games Brooks is averaging an impressive 20 points and 8 assists while connecting more than twice from long range in each game.  With a giant void of stars in Houston the rest the way, I’d expect Brooks to continue with his impressive play.

Louis Williams: No Andre Miller in Philly? No problem.  Williams has been doing a great job of leading the offense of the 76ers after the loss of last year’s starting PG to Portland.  From a fantasy perspective his numbers are more than alright as he has gotten off to a hot start with 17 pts, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.  In addition, Louis is extremely efficient with the ball turning the rock over just once per contest while contributing almost 2 steals a game.

Marc Gasol: If you’re wondering who that surprisingly fit 7 footer is tearing it up for Memphis right now, it’s not Zach Randolph, it’s Marc Gasol.  That’s right, Pau’s little brother lost weight, 30 lbs to be exact, and is now going nuts in Tennessee.  Some might have speculated a big season for Gasol with the added competition at the Center position in Memphis, but I don’t think anyone expected him to put up 17/12 with an added 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game.  This is me officially jumping on the bandwagon.

Rajon Rondo: Just 6 games in and this guy is already surpassing his expectations.  We already knew he was an explosive kind of player but 9 assists and almost 3 steals per game? Not to mention he is shooting over 56% from the field, which is absolutely absurd for a guard.  I’m buying big on the Rondo stock and I’d expect him to get even better as his teammates begin to feel the side effects of their old age as the season progresses.

Al Horford: A lot of people have been waiting for Horford to become one of the elite Centers in the NBA since he was taken 3^rd overall by the Hawks in 2007 and I’m happy to say that time is now.  While it’s still early, I am thoroughly impressed with the big man’s improvement in rebounding, shot blocking (2.6 per game), and free throw percentage.  Horford is ready to take the big leap to all-star quality.

A Fabrication of the Truth:

Russell Westbrook: The Thunder have gotten off to a decent start with competitive games against the Lakers and the Pistons to get off to their best start since…well, since they were created last year.  That said, I think that Russell Westbrook, while definitely a talented player, will cool off a bit as the season progresses.  Right now he is playing out of his mind putting up Rondo-esque numbers of 15/5/8.  Westbrook is still a young guy, much like the rest of his team, and will still need to come along way to progress into a star in the NBA, his 5.5 TO’s per game is enough to make me want to stay away.

Andrew Bynum: In the absence of dominant big man Pau Gasol, Bynum has been flourishing in LA with double doubles in the form of 20 and 10 as well as blocks and steals to add to it. It’s not that I don’t think Bynum is capable of these kinds of stats, but more that I think that his body is made of glass and that he will be on the injured list in no time at all.  I expect him to play no more than 40 games this season due to a wide degree of injuries and I would recommend selling him high if you can.

Danilo Gallinari: I’ve been watching the NBA long enough to know that generally speaking, nobody on the Knicks has the ability to be consistent, and Gallinari is no exception.  In the opening 5 games of the season the international player from Italy has caught fire from beyond the 3-point line and is currently averaging 4 3’s per game.  Not only will he cool off, I’d expect him to become fantasy irrelevant in no time at all.

Al Jefferson: Don’t hit the panic button yet! If you drafted Big Al in the first round I can imagine a lot of you going a little nuts when you see 5 rebounds in the box score from the big guy, but don’t count him out yet.  Jefferson is coming off a major injury and has been taking things slowly until he can get back into his original form.  In about a month, we should be seeing his usual box score domination in the form of 20/14.

Troy Murphy: After last year’s break out performance by Indiana’s veteran big man, I can understand some frustration from fantasy owners who selected Murphy high in the draft this year only to be disappointed with lackluster numbers.  Don’t worry my friends, Murphy has been hampered with a bruised lower back that has been affecting his game play and should return to his stellar numbers sooner rather than later.  And besides, Danny Granger could use some help carrying the Pacers to mediocrity this year.