Week 4: Fantasy Recap

Trends.  Successful Fantasy Football owners are ahead of major trends.

The best way to predict future success is to look back at past performance.  When drafting a Fantasy Football team, previous season performance is the best indicator of future success.

Making difficult roster decisions in the middle of the season requires a more narrow focus.  Players and teams get on hot or cold streaks that can carry from week-to-week.  Paying attention to these streaks can help you lead your team to fantasy victory.

WEEK 3 BULLS

David Garrard, QB Jacksonville Jaguars:

Though Garrard is not the sexist player to have as your starting QB, he has the production.  Garrard torched the Titans for 323 Yards and 3 Touchdowns.  If you are starting a QB like Tony Romo, playing Garrard is starting to sound a lot more sexy.

Recommendation: BUY; few fantasy teams are using him as a starter, but a lot more should.

Phillip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers:

The Chargers running game has been a big disappointment this season.  Rivers kept the ball moving for the Chargers against the Steelers, while Tomlinson had little to offer.  Rivers went 21/36 with 254 Yards and 3 Touchdowns in the loss.

Recommendation: BUY; he has played very consistently week-to-week, even against tough Defenses.

Ronnie Brown, RB Miami Dolphins:

The Dolphins’running game is very dangerous, with 45 rushing attempts against the Bills in Week 4.  Ronnie Brown led the way with 20 Carries for 115 Yards and 2 Touchdowns.  Brown and the Dolphins continue to run the Wildcat effectively, and should be able to move the ball on the ground.

Recommendation: BUY; Brown is the type of player who can carry a fantasy team when he has a good week.

Jerome Harrison, RB Cleveland Browns:

One of the most important statistics for a running back is number of carries.  With Jamal Lewis and James Davis injured, Harrison was responsible for 29 out of the Browns’30 carries on Sunday.  Harrison appears to have won the starting job by picking up 121 yards.

Recommendation: BUY; As long as he is getting the touches, he will be undervalued by most fantasy owners.

Steve Smith, WR New York Giants:

The preseason questions surrounding the Giants receiving corps feels like a distant memory.  Steve Smith has emerged as the leader of the young Giant receivers.  Smith has become one of Eli’s favorite targets, leading the NFL in targets for Week 4 with 16.  Week 4 Totals: 11 Receptions, 134 Yards with 2 Touchdowns made Smith the top fantasy receiver in Week 4.

Recommendation: HOLD; Smith is one of the top WRs in the NFL.  He should keep up his production, but has nowhere to go but down.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Seattle Seahawks:

When backup QBs get playing time, they tend to favor their big name receivers.  Houshmandzadeh was targeted by Seneca Wallace by 11 times.  His production had been questioned in recent weeks, but he had 8 Receptions for 103 Yards in Week 4.

Recommendation: BUY; Seneca Wallace should continue to target Houshmandzadeh while the oft-injured Hasselbeck is out.

Antonio Gates, TE San Diego Chargers:

You have to love a TE that leads his team in targets.  Gates is Phillip Rivers favorite target this season, and put up big numbers against the Steelers.  Gates finished the game with 13 Targets, 9 Receptions for 124 Yards and 2 Touchdowns.

Recommendation: SELL; his strong performance greatly improves his value, but TEs are widely available this season.

WEEK 3 Bears

Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys:

Everything is bigger in Texas, especially the microscope over Tony Romo’s performance.  After starting the season strong against the lackluster Bucs, Romo has struggled in 3 consecutive games.  The Dallas offense looked completely out of sync against the Broncos.  I do not understand why 19 of Romo’s 42 pass attempts were thrown to All-Pro CB Champ Bailey.  Bad strategy, but even worse execution by Romo.

Recommendation: SELL; there must be a Cowboys fan in your league willing to trade for Romo.

Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets:

Sanchez has played so well in the first 3 weeks that people have started to forget that he is a rookie.  After 4 Turnovers against the Saints, owners were quickly reminded that rookie QBs have their ups-and-downs.  I love Sanchez long term, but you should not rely on a rookie QB.

Recommendation: SELL; the hype exceeds realistic production.

Darren McFadden, RB Oakland Raiders:

Recommendation: SELL; try to get whatever value you can, otherwise cut him from your roster after the injury.

Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans Saints:

Remember when people laughed at the Texans for drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush?  Who’s laughing now?  Bush is not quite a running back, not quite a receiver, and not quite a productive fantasy player. As the Saints back-up RB this week, Bush has only been given 6 carries and has 3 Receptions for 44 Total Yards.

Recommendation: SELL; sad that his big play ability is not utilized by the Saints high-powered offense.

Braylon Edwards, WR Cleveland Browns:

Had a great season in 2007, but has been a huge disappointment since.  Edwards pulled a TO in Week 4 by not catching a single pass.  After a late night altercation Monday morning, I’m not sure what is more embarrassing: his performance on the field or off?

Recommendation: SELL; 7 different Browns’receivers caught a pass against the Bengals, none of whom were Braylon Edwards.

Eddie Royal, WR Denver Broncos:

Sophomore Slump.  After a terrific rookie season, Royal has been a non-factor in 2009, averaging 2 Receptions per game.  QB Kyle Orton is not known for his ability to throw the deep ball, this could be the cause for their lack of chemistry.

Recommendation: BUY; he has been horrendous this season, could be a great buy low candidate.

Kellen Winslow, TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The inexperience of QB Josh Johnson devalues all Tampa Bay receivers.  Winslow has been dreadful while Johnson has been under center.

Recommendation: SELL; cannot expect consistent production with Johnson at QB.

Thanks for checking out the Week 4 Recap!  Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think!  Who are your Week 4 Bulls and Bears?  Please comment below.