Week 3: Fantasy Recap

Fantasy Sports and the stock market have many, many similarities.  In order to be successful in either you must be aware of trends BEFORE they take place.  In fantasy, much like the stock market, it is all about value.  Successful managers pick-up (or buy) players when their value is relatively low, and wait for that investment to mature.  If an undervalued player reaches his maturity you can either hold him if you think his performance is sustainable, or deal him to capitalize on his performance because an expected cold streak.

A player’s fantasy value is very dynamic; changing constantly.  An injury report, a coaches decision, or a gun-shot wound to the thigh could affect a player’s value at any time.  In Fantasy Football a player’s value can change considerably after every game.  For savvy fantasy investors, opportunities to buy low on a player present themselves every week.

WEEK 3 BULLS

Matt Schaub, QB Houston Texans

Every week Matt Schaub is capable of putting up huge fantasy numbers.  The Hosuton QB possesses a great arm, great decision making skills, and a great corp of receivers.  Schaub started slow against the Jets strong pass D in week one, but has improved since.  In weeks two and three he has combined to go 51/74 with 657 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception; including a 26/35 for 300 yards 3TDs and 1 pick in week three against the Jags.  Schaub’s talent has never been a concern, but his durability has always been a big question mark.  Schaub has not played in more than 11 games since joining the Texans in 2007.  After being banged up in the preseason, it is no guarantee that Schaub will finish the year health, so now may be a good time to deal the QB if you can find a suitable offer.

Recommendation: SELL or HOLD; Schaub is a classic high risk/reward fantasy player.

Joe Flacco, QB Baltimore Ravens:

The Raven’s new found passing attack may be one of the biggest surprises of the young season.  Previously known for a strong running game a defense, Flacco has Baltimore looking like a complete playoff team.  Flacco led the Ravens to victory by passing for 342 yards with a TD against the Browns in week three.  The only bad news for Flacco owners is that Joe has picked on two weaker defenses so far this season against the Browns and Chiefs.  As the weather starts changing and the Ravens face tougher D’s, Flacco’s numbers may suffer.

Recommendation: SELL; target an owner who is panicking about his current QB situation.

Pierre Thomas, RB New Orleans Saints:

Pierre Thomas was on many “experts’” sleeper lists going into the preseason (NOTE: Nobody is a fantasy “expert,” certain people are just better at guessing).  Thomas’ stock fell following a late preseason knee injury.  In his first game back since aggravating his knee, Thomas was impressive in the second half against the Bills.  Thomas’s 2TDs late in the game helped the Saints to pull away, and seal the victory.  The Saints backfield is filled with injures and question marks, so as long as Pierre can stay healthy, he will be the go-to guy in the Saints backfield.  The Saint’s high-powered offense could produce many blow-outs, so New Orleans will frequently run the ball to grind out the clock.

Recommendation: BUY; a featured-back that has flown under the radar.

Knowshon Moreno, RB Denver Broncos:

The highly touted rookie has seen his carries increase every week of the season.  The running game has always been a strength for the Broncos, and Knowshon led the team in carries in week three (21 carries for 90 yards, 1 TD).  Denver thinks very highly of Moreno, drafting him higher in the draft than many expected him to go.  Expect him to continue to get the ball and produce in that system.

Recommendation: HOLD; if you own him you are ahead of the curve, but you will have to spend a lot to acquire him.

Santana Moss, WR Washington Redskins:

The only bright spot in the Redskin’s 19-14 loss to the Detroit Lions.  Moss has always been able to put up big numbers, but consistency has always been an issue with the Redskin’s offense.  Santana doubled his season total for receptions in week three (10 Rec 178, 1 TD).  Inconsistency can drive fantasy owners crazy.

Recommendation: SELL; may put up good numbers against TB next week, but don’t except number like this every week.

Kevin Walker, WR Houston Texans:

Walter sat out the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.  Walter played very well in his 2009 debut with 7 Rec for 96 yards and 1 TD.  I love the fact that he plays opposite of Andre Johnson.  Johnson will receive plenty of attention, leaving Walter open on the other side of the field.  As long as Schaub and Johnson can stay healthy, Walter should be able to put up big numbers.

Recommendation: BUY; Walter will continue to get overlooked in Andre Johnson’s shadow. 

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers:

 Up to this point in his career, many people view Vernon Davis as a bust for not living up to his enormous potential.  So far coach Singletary’s rant may be the most memorable moment of Davis’ young career.  Against the Vikings in week three Davis had arguably the best game of his career (7 Rec for 96 yards, and 2 TDs).  Davis showed the promise that 9er fans have been anticipating since he was selected 6th overall in 2006.

Recommendation: SELL; one great game does not negate previous disappointment, but hopefully a sign of things to come.

Brent Celek, TE Philadelphia Eagles:

Celek is the starting TE for an Eagle’s offense that utilizes the TE position heavily.  Players like Celek prove that you do not need to draft a TE early to be successful.  In week three against the Chiefs, Celek had 8 Recs for 104 yards and 1 TD.  Even without Donovan McNabb, Celek has a better QB situation than Oakland’s Zach Miller.  Expect more big numbers from Celek, especially after McNabb returns.

Recommendation: BUY; I dropped Zach Miller in a deep league to start Celek.

WEEK 3 BEARS

Matt Cassel, QB Kansas City Chiefs:

I do not understand why the Chiefs would put so much faith in such an unknown player.  Cassel put up respectable numbers in an extraordinary system last year in New England.  It was foolish for fantasy owners to draft Cassel with high expectations.  Although Cassel did pass for 2TDs, he only gained 90 yards and threw only 18 passes.  One of the touchdowns came against the Eagle’s prevent defense late in the game.  The Chiefs defense cannot seem to get off of the field, which limited their offensive attempts.  Even in a blowout loss to the Eagles, the Chiefs still ran the ball 29 times vs 19 pass attempts.

Recommendation: SORRY; I am sorry that you have Matt Cassel on your team, you cannot trade him, and there are likely better options available.

Clinton Portis, RB Washington Redskins:

As a Redskins fan I am sickened by the team’s offensive performance so far.  The team looks like lost on offense, completely lacking direction.  Portis seemed upset in the first quarter when they went for it on fourth and goal, and called for the same stretch play that they always run to the left side.  Until the ‘Skins can prove they can run the ball, I would avoid starting Portis at all costs.  The good news is that things cannot get much worse for Portis, right?

Recommendation: BUY; target a Portis owner who has grown frustrated, hopefully Portis (and the ‘Skins) can turn things around.

Steve Slaton, RB Houston Texans:

As surprising as Slaton was in his rookie season, he has been equally disappointing in his second season.  The season is still very young, but Slaton only has 127 yards through three games.  The good news about this season is that the Texans has faced three difficult run defenses in the Jets, Titans, and Jags.  Going forward you can expect Slaton to improve as teams try to defend the Texans dynamic passing offense.

Recommendation: BUY, BUY, BUY; seriously, you should buy Steve Slaton.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detriot Lions:

I do not think there is any other WR in the league that has the same big-play ability as Megatron (LOVE the nickname).  I don’t think he is capable of a 100 Rec season, but he can score a touchdown on any play.  So far I think he has been receiving a lot of double teams.  The running game looked strong against the Redskins, so if other players can step-up on the lions offense, it could open things up for the big play.  Look for Johnson to get involved.

Recommendation: BUY; off to a slow start, but can break off a big game any week.

Terrel Owens, WR Buffalo Bills:

Surprise, Surprise; T.O. lacks any form of chemistry in Buffalo (I think I’ve heard this story before).  The 5 targets he received against the Saints only proves that QB Trent Edwards will not buy into Owens’ “Me First” attitude.  He appears to have hit a wall in his physical ability, but people may still buy him because of the big name.

Recommendation: SELL; sell him ASAP while people still believe that he has skills.

Zach Miller, TE Oakland Raiders:

Jamarcus Russell looks like one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL.  The Raiderslook like one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  Miller is a talented player that is surrounded by a poor situation.  With plenty of TEs playing well in the NFL, guys like Miller are easily replaceable.

Recommendation: SELL; you cannot expect a lot of trade value, scout FA to find a suitable replacement.

Thanks for checking out the Week 3 Recap!  Do you agree or disagree, let me know what you think!  Who are your week 3 Bulls and Bears?  Please comment below.