Joba The Shutt (Him Down!)

When a theory is spelled out, broken down and dissected, the easiest response is to believe it for what it is. But in the case of New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi’s conservative strategy for starting pitcher Joba Chamberlain, Yanks fans shouldn’t be so complacent with the decision.

A little over two weeks ago, they chose to slow down their 23-year-old future ace, giving him eight days of rest between starts on the 16^th and 25^th of August. After an outing of four innings pitched on eight days rest, Chamberlain will now pitch only three innings per start, all in an attempt to keep him fresh for the postseason. Girardi is expected to keep Chamberlain at, or around, 160 innings pitched on the year.

At a time of such precaution, it’s enough to make you wonder how the Hall of Fame arms of yesteryear held up without such limits.  Considering the successful careers of Tom Seaver and Greg Maddux, these numbers should somewhat dismiss the logic of Yankee management:

Tom Seaver ended his career after 20 seasons, 4782.2 innings pitched and a career ERA of 2.86. Oh yeah, and he was a 12-time All-Star, 2-time Cy Young Award Winner and a 1992 inductee into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

As for Maddux, with his retirement in 2008, Maddux ended his career with 5008.1 innings pitched and a 3.16 ERA during 23 seasons with four teams. A shoe-in for the Hall of Fame, the ace racked up four Cy Young Awards and appeared in eight All-Star games.

Sure, these two are just a few cases which contradict the Joba Plan, but consider these statistics for the following pitchers who also faced inning limits early in their careers:

By training a starting pitcher to pitch fewer and fewer innings early in his career, a manager can effectively repress the strength of the pitcher throughout his career. Johan Santana, especially since being traded to the Mets, has been known to leave ballgames early, with or without the lead.

It doesn’t seem likely that any pitcher will ever throw 300 innings again in a season. However, for mangers like Joe Girardi to develop their pitcher so tenderly, it becomes unlikely that these aces will ever be conditioned for availability in the vital, late innings of a September start.